Digital Market Notes

Our take on macro digital investment issues.

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June 8, 2024

Is Bad News Good Again? All-Weather Wallets

Recession risks are pushing to the front of the line again. Policy can respond swiftly to lessen the risk. It’s an inflationary recession. Time to weather-proof your wallet.

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May 31, 2024

The First Institutional Cycle

Build a standard, and they will come. It happened in the United States with railroads, and we believe it's happening again with digital asset rails.

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May 10, 2024

Where Are “Real” Transactions? Trust the Hype

24/7/365. Bitcoin perfected it. Ethereum leveraged it for smart contract applications. And global financial players are now testing it. Trust the math…and the hype.

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May 3, 2024

Too Volatile, Too Slow... Two Tired Criticisms

Too volatile, too slow are two tired criticisms of crypto technologies. Institutional engagement is rising sharply, and adoption is following. Stablecoins will sit at the center of active portfolio decisions because of their design features.

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April 26, 2024

Crypto is Back! (It Never Left, You Just Returned.)

Crypto sparked a renaissance in real-time payments. Sleepy you say? Time for a wake-up call! Payment solutions are at the cutting edge of crypto’s integration into the mainstream…but it has plenty of competition.

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April 12, 2024

Crypto Yields – What's the Cost?

Crypto asset markets are maturing with traditional asset managers offering onchain investment solutions. Yet, the market's nascency allows for much higher yields. Each step to higher yields is a step to higher risk. What's the cost?

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April 5, 2024

What’s the Next Crisis? So Little Time, So Much Liquidity

What’s the next crisis? Don’t extrapolate recent history. Policy responses make the next crisis more likely to be inflationary than deflationary. Cash holdings are high – trapped by father time, forced to chase new nominal anchors including crypto.

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March 22, 2024

Is That Pic You!? Verify, Don’t Trust

Hunting for a use case for blockchain technologies? How about the future of intellectual property and a simple principle – what’s yours is yours. From property to payments, the future of standout companies will be to deliver this user experience.

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March 8, 2024

It’s All About the Base… and Bananas

Innovation is everything – even in things we take for granted, like bananas. It’s inherently slower in finance. Better, cheaper, faster will always win…with the right incentives.

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March 1, 2024

Picks and Shovels

Investors are attentive to “big caps” in this cycle. It’s a pick-and-shovel strategy to capture the megatrends in tech innovations – crypto included.

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February 23, 2024

New Bull Market, Old Wall of Worry

Institutions are defining the new bull market and investors are climbing the old wall of worry. Troubling signs of speculative excess in DeFi? There’s a push out the risk spectrum to be sure – a healthy endorsement of development more than a warning shot.

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February 16, 2024

Centralized Decentralization!?

Centralized decentralization may be the ultimate oxymoron. Yet, it is the perfect description of the Bitcoin ETF dynamics. Does finance tend toward centralization? User experience will decide.

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February 9, 2024

Markets Seek Truth – Turning Bitcoin Green (Again)

Who am I? I dress in orange, but deep down I’m really green. Bitcoin miners are constantly hunting for the cheapest feedstock. Stranded energy is it – and it’s green.

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February 2, 2024

Disruption Is Dead! Long Live the Disruptor.

Step away from the token and lean into the technology. Mainstream companies are turning to crypto and crypto companies are merging to the mainstream.

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January 26, 2024

Dollar Regulation – Biggest US Digital Import!!

Stablecoin is readying for integration into the payments mainstream. Global regulation is the unlock. The home of the US dollar is outsourcing its digital regulations…and it could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Better off lucky than good.

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January 19, 2024

Right Place, Right Time – Active Crypto Strategies

Passive investment strategies were radical in the late 1970s when they were born. The strategies arrived at the right place, and the right time – like crypto assets today.

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January 12, 2024

Crypto’s Catapult – The Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin ETFs provide a familiar first step in the evolution of the financial system. It also marks the start of a new narrative – institutions are embracing crypto.

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December 22, 2023

Party like it’s 1995…but it’s not. Get long scarcity.

It looks like the 1990s. A fast hiking cycle, falling inflation, and a runway to a soft landing. Bitcoin doesn’t buy it. Scarcity is today’s theme, not the 1990s’ abundance of capacity. Scarcity premium belongs in your portfolio – crypto is one vessel.

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December 15, 2023

Fate loves irony. Stablecoin is the bastion of stability.

Just Do It… within the law, please. Markets forced crypto to clean up, inviting institutional participation. Stablecoin is making its way to the main stage for the most ironic of reasons – its inherent stability.

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December 8, 2023

COP28… Green With (Bitcoin) Envy

Can bitcoin play the role of digital gold in diversification from the US dollar? Absolutely. But it must first overcome image problems – like its carbon footprint. We see bitcoin as a natively green network – part of the solution, not the problem.

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December 1, 2023

QT or not QT? The hated crypto rally.

Crypto asset markets have more than doubled from the lows. It’s a hated rally. Silent speculators point to a continuation of the trend. So do liquidity conditions, easing despite rate hikes and quantitative tightening.

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November 17, 2023

Blackrock's Bitcoin Halo Effect

Crypto technologists and regulators are joined at the hip, like it or not. Those who embrace it will win. It is not a disservice to decentralization – it is the natural step toward achieving scale.

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November 10, 2023

Invisible Hand (Cuffs) of Entrepreneurial Drive

Having the best tech – like crypto payment rails – and entrepreneurial drive isn’t enough. You need macro support. That’s China’s delicate balance – and the rest of us, too.

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November 3, 2023

Seeing in 3-De, hearing the technologist.

Global markets are seeing in “3-De” – deglobalization, dedollarization, decoupling. The technologist sees innovation unlocks from the Cold War, including digital finance entering the mainstream. International is lengthening its lead.

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October 27, 2023

The grumpy trader…in a rising market.

Crypto assets are up a lot despite weak global equity markets. Our Trend Strategy and the infrastructure built around it was resilient to the correlation break. Even the grumpy trader grinned. Onward.

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October 20, 2023

On Bitcoin, Buggies, and Bonds... Green Bonds

This week we showcased a live version of a “Green Bond” via Project Diamond. Interested parties covered all corners of the world and diverse sectors.

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October 13, 2023

A digital euro…by way of fiat?!?

What would it take for a digital euro to thrive? Maybe an executive decree – the definition of fiat, ironically. We study European imbalances that only add to the irony – it's Germany’s decision.

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October 6, 2023

RWA? Try DNA.

Bringing tokenized assets to cryptographic rails is a game-changer – the first step on a road to financial automation and efficiency.

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September 22, 2023

Scarcity is Not Enough

Bitcoin is scarce. So are the original pet rocks. Scarcity isn’t enough. The asset has to deliver a valuable use case. Value creates demand. And for bitcoin, being a store of value may be its best and most limiting attribute.

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September 15, 2023

Bitcoin Futures and Farmers

Financial futures have a powerful function – move risk to those who want it. Hedge funds are usually the risk-takers. But in bitcoin futures, they are risk mitigators! You can still glean contrarian indicators from futures – you just have to look in a different place.

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July 14, 2023

Hong Kong’s Pathway to Prudence

The headlines read “Hong Kong is crypto-friendly.” We had to evaluate it first-hand. Optimism is everywhere and forward-thinking is the norm. But it’s measured – a prudent path. And that’s good.

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July 7, 2023

A spot bitcoin ETF is like water…taking the path of least resistance.

A US spot ETF for Bitcoin is inevitable. And there’s no time like the present. It’s symbolic of institutional adoption. Infrastructure providers will be the big winners.

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June 30, 2023

The Truth is (Not) Out There

What do the fundamentals say? Reflexivity argues they are only part of the story. Leverage is the key component that drives volatility across reflexive cycles. The reflexive interplay between fundamentals and expectations is aligned today – cheap and sanguine.

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June 2, 2023

Tokenization... Dream Big, Execute Small

Tokenization is the epitome of dreaming big. All assets on digital rails seamlessly exchanged from peer-to-peer. Businesses with high asset turnover are natural unlocks.

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May 12, 2023

Lessons from the UAE... never short innovation.

The golden rule of investing – never be short innovation. The UAE clearly agrees. Our weeklong visit left us struck by the strategic vision to foster innovation.

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September 16, 2022

The Pulse of Digital Asset Markets

How are digital assets doing? Not price…the fundamentals? With so many assets – and so much data – it’s been hard to answer that question, until now. Welcome to The Pulse: a systematic snapshot of the digital ecosystem’s fundamental health.

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March 17, 2022

A Benchmark for Digital Assets

We designed our indices with three goals: to be dynamic, to be rules based, and to be institutionally investible.